Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to make landfall over Northern Baja California late Saturday, Oct. 10, bringing rain, dangerous surf and coastal flooding risk to Coronado through Tuesday, Oct. 13.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the San Diego coast on Friday, Oct. 9, only the second time in history such a watch has been issued for Southern California, Weather West reported. The last was for Tropical Storm Hilary in August 2023, which caused an estimated $900 million in damage across the United States, according to NBC 7 San Diego.

Rain could arrive as early as Saturday night, with more widespread rainfall Sunday, Oct. 11, morning into early afternoon. Peak amounts are projected around an inch across San Diego County, according to the National Weather Service. NBC 7 meteorologist Greg Bledsoe said a secondary low-pressure system will extend rain chances into Monday, Oct. 12, and Tuesday.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect through 2 p.m. Tuesday due to higher-than-average tides and potential flooding in low-lying coastal areas. Waves up to 7 feet are possible on south-facing beaches. Ocean water levels along the Southern California coast have already been running 12 to 18 inches above normal, Weather West reported, driven by thermal expansion of record-warm seawater.

The National Hurricane Center warned Friday that swells generated by Rachel are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding, through Oct. 13, according to a statement cited by Weather West. San Diego lifeguards will staff up at beaches in response, CBS 8 reported.

As we reported Wednesday, Oct. 7, Rachel's swell had already pushed surf to 6 feet at Coronado beaches. Conditions are expected to worsen through Sunday.

Coronado's flood risk

Coronado's low-lying geography makes the city especially vulnerable to storm surge and flooding. City Manager Tina Friend put it bluntly on Aug. 20, when she announced completion of the $32 million Parker Pump Station: "We are just intrinsically vulnerable … We are flat. We are at sea level. We are surrounded by water."

That pump station, which the Coronado Times reported was completed after more than three years of construction, collects stormwater from about 150 acres of the city. It replaces a station built in 1983. In January 2024, excessive rainfall overwhelmed Coronado's stormwater system and caused a sewer line to burst.

The city said its storm infrastructure also includes a temporary drainage system at Five Points, a waterproof SDG&E switch at First Street and Avenue A, and movable barricades for intersection closures, according to the Coronado Eagle & Journal. City crews will monitor locations with a history of flooding and place warning signs ahead of the storm.

How to prepare

Free sandbags are available throughout San Diego County. Coronado residents can find the nearest pickup site by searching ZIP code 92118 at 211sandiego.org or by calling 2-1-1.

The San Diego County Office of Emergency Services recommends residents avoid parking in flood-prone areas, use sandbags where appropriate and stay alert to changing conditions. Residents can sign up for emergency alerts at AlertSanDiego.org.

Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible along the coast, with potential for damage to porches, carports and sheds, according to the National Weather Service.